You may have heard of chaos theory, may have watched the movie 'the butterfly effect' or at least heard that the 'weather is unpredictable', so much so our national weather institute cannot even predict weather for the next month, even few days ahead.
And the simple explanation to the weather problem is chaos theory. In simple terms, chaos theory is ' in a complex system, small changes in initial starting state can lead to unpredictability of the system over time that it can result in large variations in outcomes.' Ok, maybe that was too harsh. We will first dissect it slowly and then when we have enough knowledge, look back at our lives to see, if there any use we can apply this knowledge in our lives.
What is a complex system? Our atmosphere and weather are a complex system, we can understand why with all its clouds, winds, temperature, ice glaciers, ozone layer and global warming, it is a complex system. However, even three objects in space moving relative to each other and having gravity effects on each other is a complex system. Even three simple gravity balls in space! is by definition complex. And by establishing chaos theory, there will be marked variation in position of these gravity balls which is so unpredictable if the initial positions are changed even a small fraction.
If positions of three balls are unpredictable over time 'by definition of chaos theory' now we can understand why our weather departments struggle so hard to predict the future. But hey, they do a pretty good job right?
Chaos theory and fractals
Forget mathematics, still our forefathers knew there will be monsoons, or four seasons of weather. If the weather is so unpredictable, why do we observe these patterns in the weather over time?
Edward Lorenz who first came out with chaos theory, while he was investigating weather systems noticed over time in complex systems, there are patterns start to emerge which can come back again and again, due to some forces, hence given the name Attractors. And these patterns will lead to infinitely complexity but self-similar across all scales- which are called 'fractals' in mathematics. Now let's slow down. We stopped learning math long time ago, why do we have to revisit, 'fractals'. The truth is we do not have to. If we look at nature (which is another complex system) there are examples of these fractals. And oh boy! there are so many so that mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot had written a book about these observations in the nature. The Fractal Geometry of Nature 1982
Can chaos theory explain our life?
So, how are we going to explain our lives with chaos theory? It is clear that we are living in a complex system, not only the weather, even our minds are complex enough, the outcomes can be unpredictable over time. Even a spark of a single thought you are getting by reading this chapter can lead to change in thousand lives and even the weather in 100 years to come!
What can we do with this knowledge?
Imagine you are around some 'Lorenz attractors'. Your life seems predictable rotating around same people, same routines (fractals?), however if you look carefully there is variation, and nothing is repeated. If you try and get out of complex patterns, of course you will be back into a chaotic life and be blown away. But after some time, you will be attracted to some other 'Lorenz factor' and there will be a flow. And that is the nature. And I suggest you have faith in chaos theory after all and the take the leap of faith, which you have been trying to take your entire life.
Thank you for reading : can chaos theory and weather explain our lives.
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