This is part 2 of Jim Carrey philosophy. This time it comes from the movie "Yes man".
Plot Yes man Movie.
In the film "Yes Man," Jim Carrey stars as Carl Allen, a man stuck in a rut who often says "no" to new opportunities and experiences. His life takes a turn when he attends a self-help seminar and adopts a new mantra: to say "yes" to everything. This change leads him to unexpected adventures and a new outlook on life, as he embraces new relationships, challenges, and opportunities. However, the constant agreement also brings chaos and complications. Ultimately, Carl learns to balance saying "yes" with making thoughtful decisions, leading to personal growth and a deeper connection with others, especially with a woman named Allison, played by Zooey Deschanel. The film conveys a message about the importance of seizing opportunities and embracing change.
After watching the movie although it felt hilarious, saying yes to opportunities seems to be the way forward. But what is the balance? What is the balance between saying yes and saying no. Should we say yes to every opportunity when it comes to us? And where do you think opportunity is abundant.
Imagine you went to las Vagas for a vacation and there you decided to become a yes man. And you entered a casino. And I am sure 😌 if you start saying yes to all the opportunities you will end up in streets with empty hands, losing all your lifetime of savings. And you will learn that becoming a yes man in a casino is impossible. But it would have worked for Jim Carrey if he went to Vagas.
This observation leaves us with the question of philosophy of being a yes man. At least I found the mathematical model which can closely linked with the above scenario.
Mathematics of becoming a yes man - Prospect theory
This discussion is highly theoretical. When you are taking important decisions there are so many variables to consider. Yet, for the purpose of discussion this is good enough. The math of becoming a yes man is the prospect theory. It is a behavioral economics model developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979.
Here is the explanation on how you can become a yes man.
Imagine a coin toss which has 50/50 chance of turning heads or tails. If someone bet you 100 dollars, would you play the game?
Most likely you would not.
What if someone toss a coin but this time, he offers 101 dollars and if you lost you only have to give 99 dollars?
Most likely still you would not.
But let's tweak the scenario. Now think about the second option but this time he is going to offer you 100-coin tosses instead of one coin toss. And now you might take the bet. What about 1000-coin tosses in a row? Let's do some math on this.
Math of simple coin Toss.
If the coin toss is fair, in 1 toss
You might lose 99
You might gain 101
In 100 tosses you win 50 he wins 50
You will lose 4950
You will gain 5050
Net gain -> 100 dollars
In 1000 tosses you win 500 he wins 500
You will lose 49500
You will gain 50500
Net gain -> 1000 dollars
As you can see when the number of coin tosses are increased you are guaranteed you will gain more than you lose as long as it is a fair game. And that is the secret to become a yes man. And as you can see you have to choose which time you are saying yes to, and you have to do this consistently for some time to see the results. I am sure Warren buffet would agree to this as it was what he has done his entire career.
As you can see it is the same strategy used in casinos. But instead giving you 101, they will take 101 if you lose. And in the long term everyone will be scammed although occasionally it appears someone would hit the jackpot.
In summary.
In summary, in life when opportunity arises, we can become a yes man as long as it is a fair game, and chances of winning is 50% or more. Having said that, life seems to hide more truths than simple math. So, I wouldn't say its total truth, as it is hard to define rules of a real-life game. And comparing stock market to a coin toss is not at all wise. However, knowing this helps me to become a yes man at least for some opportunities.
This is not the only application of prospect theory, in fact there are some more interesting facts, which you can read here.